The quantitative analysis of the frost risk in the upper basin of Mures river 

ABSTRACT. Quantitative risk analysis of frostbite in the Upper Basin of Mures. The studied region is considered as one of the coldest part of Romania. Our study determined that the most suitable distribution low to adjust the appearance of annual extreme negative temperatures is the normal distribution, on which we determined the return periods for extreme negative values. Observing that the extreme values always appeared on temperature inversions we determined two regression equations for the North and South part of the studied area, on which the special extend of extreme temperatures can be made. The resulted hazard maps were categorized to represent the time in which the frostbite appears in the most susceptible 5% of population. Using the 2002 census data we also calculated the number of persons affected by frostbit if they stay outdoor a specified period of time. For our analysis we used an own developed GIS, based on Borland Delphi, R, IDRISI Andes Edition, RDCom and inovaGIS.

Keywords: frost risk, Mures river, upper basin, temperature distribution